主讲人：魏涛远挪威奥斯陆大学

演讲题目：Potential influence of climate change on grain self-sufficiency （气候变化对粮食自给率的潜在影响研究）

主持人：林晨中国人民大学应用经济学院

时间：5月23日上午10点

地点：明德主楼734会议室

主讲人简介：魏涛远，经济学博士（挪威奥斯陆大学）。现任挪威国际气候与环境研究中心资深研究员，曾就读于中国人民大学国民经济管理系并随后在国家统计局从事投入产出核算和分析工作。研究领域为能源与气候变化经济学，侧重于绿色国民经济核算和利用可计算的一般均衡（CGE）模型分析与能源、环境和气候相关的问题。先后主持和参与国际国内项目10多项，发表与研究领域相关的学术论文50余篇，其中：国际期刊论文40篇。

摘要：In the past decades, grain self-sufficiency is one of key security issues for some countries such as Russia, China, India, and France. Climate change may affect agricultural production and possibly influence grain self-sufficiency of some countries, threatening their food security. This article provides an updated integrated assessment of the impact on grain self-sufficiency of climate change at country level. The study is linking climatic variables projected by global climate models to economic variables simulated by a global multi-region multi-sector CGE model based on a global input-output dataset. Although climate change may considerably reduce land productivity, our results show that climate change in the long term modestly impacts regional grain self-sufficiency, as direct effects on yield is largely canceled out by changes in grain production via adaptation measures taken by producers as responses to market signals. Behavior changes of consumers also contribute modest to cancel out the adverse impact on land productivity. In the RCP8.5 scenario of climate change, the adverse impact of climate change on land productivity in 2100 may reach 25% of the current level, but shrinks to 5% when changes in production and consumption are considered, thus indicating the role of long-term adaptation by economic agents.