Industrial Transfer Policy in China: Migration and Development

活动安排： 14:00-15:00 学术报告

                   15:00-15:30 参会人员交流

主讲人：王芷苓 荷兰鹿特丹伊拉斯姆斯大学（Erasmus University Rotterdam）应用经济学系助理教授

时间：2021年5月26日，星期三，14：00-15：30

腾讯会议ID：878 331 751

报告摘要：

Place-based policies in China are momentous and growing in scale. In 2010, China’s government initiated the Industrial Transfer Policy (ITP) to expand and upgrade western inland manufacturing cities, and reduce pressures of costs and congestion in coastal manufacturing hubs. The policy is large, covering millions of people, and novel as it aims to transfer people from the largest cities towards smaller cities as a strategy for national growth. We employ a large-scale migrant survey across Chinese cities from 2010 onward to track (bilateral) migration decisions associated with ITP. To identify the policy’s impact, we compare cities that were targeted under the ITP to cities with a similar likelihood of being targeted. The bilateral dataset allows controlling for correlated explanations of migration driven by shocks at the migrant’s origin or by origin-destination specific motives. A city that is targeted under ITP status experiences to 30% larger migrant inflows in the year after announcement. Employing a structural interpretation, we estimate that 1.3 million current migrants change their destination and an additional 4 million non-migrants become migrants, moving towards the targeted cities. There is only modest evidence of structural upgrading in the ITP cities. While the composition of migrants changes and more migrants work in the manufacturing sector, the sectoral changes are limited and we find no evidence of changes in wages for locals, changes to local production in firm-level data, or changes in urban development in city-level data.

作者简介：

王芷苓，荷兰鹿特丹伊拉斯姆斯大学（Erasmus University Rotterdam）应用经济学系助理教授。2016年博士毕业于荷兰阿姆斯特丹自由大学（Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam）空间经济学系。研究领域为区域与城市经济学，经济地理和人口流动。研究成果发表于Journal of Regional Science, Spatial Economic Analysis, Annals of Regional Science等著名学术期刊。关于荷兰高校教育政策的评论文章受到荷兰权威媒体报导和引用。主持联合国“可持续发展目标”研究基金项目，参与欧洲NORFACE “移民和区域多样性” 研究基金。Global Labor Organization优秀青年学者。

区域与城市经济学研讨会（Regional and Urban Economics Seminar）由中国人民大学应用经济学院区域与城市经济研究所定期推出，旨在为研究中国区域与城市经济问题的学者提供交流的平台。

联系人：卢昂荻（angdilu@ruc.edu.cn）