近日，应用经济学院助理教授李越欣作为第一作者的论文In Art We Trust在国际权威期刊Management Science正式在线发表。

信任是市场运行的基础。数字时代，区块链技术对于保障交易信息的真实性和完善市场信任机制具有很大潜力。作为非标准化的重要另类资产，艺术品的异质性、低流动性、信息不对称和赝品风险使得艺术品市场定价和交易远比传统金融市场复杂，市场信任机制对于非标准化产品市场的发展尤为关键。目前，区块链技术在防伪溯源和版权保护等应用场景方兴未艾，交易中介提供的拍卖图录信息起到类似“区块链”的功能，提供艺术品真实性的信号，缓解市场信息不对称，创造信任。研究涵盖跨越千年的全球艺术品的拍卖交易，通过文本分析方法解构拍卖图录信息，量化艺术品所有权流转、展览记录、文献资料和真实性证明文件如何影响拍卖结果。研究采用媒体报道赝品后受波及艺术家的市场交易和拍卖机构关于提供艺术品来源信息的政策变化两个自然实验作为外生冲击的双重差分模型、重复交易模型等方法，解决艺术品信息提供与艺术品价格（质量）存在的内生性问题，探讨信息如何塑造市场信任机制。研究拓展了非标准化产品的估值和定价方法，为文化经济学研究提供了新的视角。

ABSTRACT

Whereas trust is the cornerstone of any market’s functioning, it is of particular importance in markets that are unregulated, illiquid, and opaque, such as the art market. This study examines the role of authenticity, as captured by provenance information in auction catalogs, on the probability of auctioned oil paintings, watercolors, and prints being sold; their price formation; and returns. Auction catalogs include four authenticity dimensions: pedigree (ownership “blockchain,” descendance information; type of past owners, such as renowned collectors; and past sales records), exhibition history (e.g., in famous museums or galleries), literature coverage (e.g., in catalogues raisonnés or authoritative press), and certification (e.g., artist’s physical testimonial, expert opinions). We find that trust, proxied by provenance information, increases the probability of a work being sold by up to 4%, leads to hammer price premiums up to 54%, and increases annualized returns by 5%–16%. To address potential endogeneity problems between the provision of provenance and past prices/price expectations, we perform quasi-natural experiments in difference-in-differences settings on auction houses’ provenance policy changes following authenticity litigation and on a contamination effect of the discovery of fakes and forgeries on the oeuvre of forged artists. We also test transactions less affected by past prices, such as estate sales following the death of a collector. The findings on the relation between provenance and prices are robust to artist reputation, artistic style, auction house reputation, art market liquidity, and artist career timing.

李越欣，2021年获得荷兰蒂尔堡大学金融学博士学位，同年加入中国人民大学应用经济学院，受聘中国人民大学杰出学者青年学者。主要研究领域为文化经济、另类投资、公司金融。研究成果发表在《金融研究》、Management Science等期刊。主持国家自然科学基金青年项目。

图文/供稿：能源经济系

设计 责编：王怡璟 马文林

审核：李越欣 宋枫